Written by Chad Potier March 21, 2010
As Spring training draws to a close, I began to ponder how wins in Spring translate to Regular Season wins. As an Astros' fan, the regular season has been somewhat disappointing for several years, with the exception of 2005, when the 'Srtos won the NL pennant (only to be swept by the White Sox in the World Series).
When you look at the winning percentage of the Regular Season vs Spring Training games the numbers are somewhat telling:
2005 Spring - .500
2005 Regular season - .552
Over the past 3 years in Regular Season vs Spring Training games the difference in winning percentage has been .11 (with 2007 being the only season where Spring proved to be better).
2009 Spring - .442
2009 Regular Season - .442
2008 Spring - .435
2008 Regular Season - .534
2007 Spring - .451
2007 Regular Season - .638
The NL pennant winners the same years, Phillies '09 - .438 Spring .574 Regular Season, Phillies '08 - .417 Spring .568 Regular Season, and Rockies '07 - .580 Spring .552 Regular Season.
So what does this all mean? Well, it has lead me to believe what Benjamin Disraeli, the 19th century British Prime Minister, (or Mark Twain, depending on who's word you take) once wrote, "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."
Spring is a time of REBIRTH and HOPE. It's the time of the year when every fan, be it Astros', Cubs' or Nationals', all can say, "This is going to be our year." So get out to the ballpark and cheer on your team, smell the grass, eat a Decker Dog, and drink a $8 beer, because until September - when CFB starts - what else is there?
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